The Hollowing Out of Destiny

By: George Spafford

October 11, 2006

There are a few things that really worry me and the decline of training and education, which is leading to a drop in technical skills is right at the top. It ties with concerns over pandemics and human error for the number one slot in terms of my interests. Why? Let me tell you.

After World War II, the US was the preeminent economic and military power by default. We were at the right place at the right time with the right people and the right culture. Our factories hadn’t been bombed, our military-industrial complex was bustling and the world was calling. What an amazing time it was. People from all over the world came to the United States for undergraduate and graduate educations and often stayed to partake in the wealth and betterment of life. It was a wonderful phase and like all phases, the world has moved on to new things.

Like so many civilizations before, the United States has entered an era of maturity and decline. Today, it is, without a doubt, the preeminent military power on the planet through the use of force multiplier technology. The challenge is that the economic base In the United States needed to support that technology is entering a fading grey twilight. Our advancements are moving ahead via inertia vs. design.

The industrial era was accompanied by huge factories and labor economies. With electronics came miniaturization and digital logic with a decreasing emphasis in capital intensity save for certain industries. Now we are entering into the world of nanotech and quantum physics. We have shifted from empires of steel to empires of the mind. We have shifted from economies of scale to economies of knowledge. In many areas, the creators of knowledge will never produce anything physical. Either their output will be produced by someone else or what is created will never take a physical form other than to be stored in vast knowledge repositories governed not by states but by corporations.

If we think in terms of a simple two-dimensional model comparing knowledge intensity to societal benefits, we can hypothesize about potential outcomes.

The “Purpose Driven” high-value knowledge-intensive economies will be the ones that have a concerted effort between government and corporations to develop an exceptionally strong educated citizenry. As a result, they will have the necessary mix of persistent and transient skills to excel. This is something that doesn’t happen in months but in years or even decades. When we talk about shaping corporate culture that is one thing but here we are talking about shifting a nation’s culture. The prize will go to the nations and corporations who recognize the value of education, basic research and develop the necessary fertile environment for innovation and capitalism. The society benefits will be evidenced by higher standards of living, education and a sustainable military advantage.

“Future Stars” will be developing their knowledge adoption and production capabilities such that when disruptive technology opportunities appear they will be able to advance. This group will see some degree of cooperation between government and industry with an eye towards the eclectic promotion of technologies that will best position the society for the future. In the same way that water flows to the lowest point, investments flow to areas where the greatest returns are expected. Today we see India, China and the Philippines other parts of Asia ascending. In 20-30 years they will be confronted by maturing South American and African economies and witness investments flow to those regions.

“Inertia Driven” societies risk falling into the “troubled” category unless they can revitalize their knowledge generation capabilities through the cooperative efforts of industry and government. The problem is that these societies have high standards of living and powerful military capabilities but they are no longer sustainable. The benefits to society are being accrued due to the inertia of patents, brand recognition, government intervention, borrowing funds and other artificial non-sustainable means.

“Troubled” societies are languishing due to their inability to generate knowledge. The causes will include war, famine and other forms of strife. They represent a rich labor pool that, if tapped, can begin the course of maturation and knowledge generation.

From the US perspective, we stand at a dangerous precipice as we are Inertia Driven at this point. If we follow our current path we will be irrelevant within a century because we are losing core persistent skills that transcend technologies. The United States can still be recovered if decisive purposeful action is taken. The most important message that one can take from this article is that part of our national agenda must be a partnership between government and industry aimed at maintaining our ability to generate meaningful knowledge both now and in the future.